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Trending Update 07:56 - In the G10 currencies ...

Trending Update 07:56 - In the G10 currencies ...

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In the G10 currencies today, AUD and EUR are number one and two, respectively while USD and JPY are among the top losers. AUD was buoyed by improved business conditions and confidence overnight. EUR was also helped by robust German data and slightly hawkish comments from ECB’s speakers. USD and JPY were on the back foot on expectations of some rhetoric from North Korea as Tuesday marks an anniversary of the founding of their ruling party. In our view, USD may resume its advance if the risk from North Korea abates. Also, JPY is likely to resume its decline as the rising US yields remain an important driver. Elsewhere, NZD remained weak as NZ first party leader Winston Peters thwarted hopes of an announcement about the next government this Thursday. Also, Fitch sees an elevated macroeconomic risk for NZD. In the equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed +0.67% at 20826 but the European equities have opened slightly lower with DAX down 0.1%, CAC down 0.1% and Ibex down 0.5%%. The only exception has been FTSE which is up 0.1%. In the rates market, the German and US 10-year yields continue to consolidate at 0.45% and 2.36%, respectively. In the energy space, the Brent has risen slightly to $55.94, up for the second day in a row this week. In terms of data today, the German trade balance and exports both improved. Elsewhere Norway’s core inflation rate disappointed expectations (0.5% actual vs. 0.7% expected), and in our view, this reduces expectations of a Norges bank rate normalisation. The UK trade balance at 0830 GMT is the only top-tier release for the rest of the day from either Europe or the US, That said, we will hear from Fed’s Kashkari and BoC Wilkins at 1400 and 1800 GMT, respectively.


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