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rahul.khanna's blog

ECB Preview - What to expect

The ECB will meet on Thursday but no change to the policy is expected. We can expect some revision in forecasts with the most important being CPI projections. This is because EURUSD has risen to 1.19 from 1.11 when July projections were made. No change in CPI projections will be seen as bullish as this will be a green signal to the market that October meeting will set the tapering policy over the coming months.

BoE Preview 03 Aug 17

The BoE interest rate decision is due at 1100 GMT but we will also have the UK inflation report and the MPC meeting minutes followed by the Governor Carney press conference at 1130 GMT. Looking at the GBP price action over the past few weeks it seems that the investors are gearing up for a bullish BoE. However, since Mark Carney’s hawkish surprise at Sintra, we’ve had a slightly softer inflation and GDP print and this may help the BoE in moderating market expectations.

USDINR Analysis 02 Aug 17

USDINR has completed a triangle pattern after breaking key 64.00-64.20 area. Next key level comes in at 63.60 where a break will open 63.00. In order to see improvement MACD needs move above the zero line and 64.25 needs to be regained.

USDINR Daily Chart (6-month).

USDINR 20 Jul 17

FX Market Macro Wrap 28 July 17

The week marked a change of trend for CHF now the weakest currency. However, there was no change in outlook for USD as the greenback fell further following a dovish FOMC statement (with language on inflation changed from running “slightly below” to “running below” 2%). The US Q2 GDP also failed to excite the market as it came as expected. The top currencies for the week were SEK and NOK both boosted by better domestic data and a rise in crude prices, respectively. The EUR also added to its gains versus the low yielding currencies as the German 10-year bunds fell further.

FX Market Macro Wrap 21 Jul 17

Looking ahead, next week is action packed, on Monday, OPEC and the non-OPEC meeting will get the most attention. For EUR traders Preliminary Manufacturing PMI will be the key with upside risk to EUR from positive numbers. On Wednesday, BoJ Deputy Nakaso and RBA Lowe will grab some attention along with UK Q2 GDP (Preliminary) numbers. However, the main focus will remain on the FOMC rates decision. Friday will also be important as the US Q2 GDP (advance) will become due. 

USDINR Analysis 20 Jul 17

USDINR has now found support at 64.20 area, just above the support line. An upside to 64.75 is likely but MACD needs to improve further to raise chances of a bigger bounce to 65.00. Below 64.20 opens 63.89-64.00 area.

USDINR Daily Chart (6-month).

USDINR 20 Jul 17

FX Trade Strategy - 18 July 2017

Weekly FX Technical Analysis round-up – Tuesday 18th July 2017

Click the image or here to read the full article 

FX Strategy 18 Jul 17

Market Macro Wrap 14 July 2017

The week is marked by a return of the risk appetite and return of crude strength. In terms of the weekly standings, commodity currencies reign supreme with AUD, CAD and NOK top three. In the equities market, Nikkei 225 has closed +0.95% for the week and even though European equities are mixed today, we have seen decent gains since the start of the week except for FTSE; DAX +1.75%, CAC40 +1.53% and IBEX +1.62%. In the rates market, US and EU 10-year yields have now diverged thanks to the US CPI miss. In the energy space, WTI front month has gained nearly $2.5 to reach $46.42.

Is Abenomics going out of the syllabus in Japan?

Is Abenomics going out of the syllabus in Japan?

The short answer is no. However, let’s dig into the details.

Fed Chair Yellen Testimony and the US CPI Preview

We see risk to the dollar still skewed to the downside from both Yellen’s testimony and US CPI. We heard two Fed speakers yesterday (Harker and Brainard are voters) and both were dovish; Fed Harker comments to the WSJ were more surprising as he had earlier given more hawkish signals while Brainard comments were more or less as expected. USD and the US yields fell on these dovish comments which highlight market concern for dovish Fed talks. This is why we see USD vulnerable to a dovish Yellen.

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