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US NFP Preview 07 July 17
The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% with some increment in participation rate possible (currently 62.7%). We also expect payrolls to come in slightly under expectations (175K) as the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing showed a drop from 57.8 to 55.8. That said, a print of around 150K to 175K should still be seen as a solid number given that Fed Chair Yellen just last year pointed that any growth in jobs to the tune of 100K should keep Fed on its path. Average hourly earnings is expected to grow at 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously and this should be seen as yet another sign that Labour market is tightening.
In terms of its impact on USD, we doubt that the single release would be able to push the dollar significantly higher given we have seen several months of negative data surprises from the US. Also, the focus firmly remains on the US CPI/retail sales next week as this more important for the FED in setting the pace of rate hikes, hence, even if the jobs data surprises to the upside we are looking to fade the USD bounce. We still see support at 1.13 on EURUSD with buyers likely to come in around these levels.