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Key Takeaway From the ECB Minutes
The ECB minutes were released and the EURUSD has moved 15pips to 1.1382 following the release. There are some interesting changes in communication on QE easing bias. Here are some key points;
- It was stated that if the economic expansion continues and outlook on inflation is improved further there are chances to review the easing bias.
- There was caution on giving small incremental signals as being misinterpreted as a signal to more fundamental changes in policy as it puts inflation at risk.
- The economic conditions have improved enough to warrant some tightening in financial conditions especially the bond and currency market.
- Political risk remains but is diminished.
These minutes ties with our view that Euro is taxiing for the runway, we see some form of discussion on QE program is likely to begin at the next ECB meeting on 20 July and an announcement on the QE program can be made at the September 7 meeting.